Hello and welcome back to a second Data Season, the analytics newsletter where we break down NFL games based upon what the numbers say, cover the most interesting NFL storylines, and provide betting and gambling advice that will help you cash in this 2023 NFL football season.
First down! Check out our new and improved website where we cover some of the top NFL storylines that occurred during the offseason. The devaluing position of running back in today’s modern pass happy NFL. The NFLPA’s release of report card grades for teams. And many others. Check out the website and see what the numbers say!
Tonight - it's the Titans traveling to Acrisure Stadium to take on the Steelers!
Tennessee fans feel like they’ve struck oil after the debut of rookie QB Will Levis last week. Levis threw for 238 yards and 4 passing touchdowns, which was good enough for a 135.5 QBR in his first NFL game. The Steelers are coming off a tough home game loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, and their QB play has been less than inspiring. Kenny Pickett exited last week’s game early due to an injury, but is expected to play tonight for the hometown fans.
Both teams are middling in their division and these close games could decide if the team is playing for a wildcard spot in a few weeks. Neither team can afford to lose this game and slip further behind their divisional rivals. This week should be electric! Let’s break down the numbers to see who will win in the Steel City this Thursday night!
Beware of low sample volume! While Will Levis’ debut was a smashing success, it was just one game so we will take his stats with a large grain of salt, as rookie QB’s often struggle week to week in the NFL. However it is not so much Will’s stats that provide the Titans with the edge offensively, but the combination of Pickett and Trubisky. Neither Steelers QB has wowed the crowds in 2023. Add in the Steeler’s struggling run game with Najee Harris, and the Steelers overall offensive rank is bottom of the league at #29.
Offensively the Titans have the edge for a number of reasons, but the biggest being #22 in the backfield. Derrick Henry has rushed for 75 yards a game, and that was with defenders stacking the box against an abysmal Ryan Tannehill led passing attack. The addition of Will Levis should provide Henry some relief in future games, as no team wants to see Deandre Hopkins put up another 4 touchdown performance like last week.
This is just a great opportunity for data to do the talking and how the numbers can speak against public perception.
The Steelers defense is lauded for being a tough opponent to play against (and this is true) but it’s not nearly the juggernaut I would have expected. This unit specializes in creating turnovers, and may very well shift the tide of the game if the Titans get loose with the ball. J.J. Watt is definitely the heart and soul of this version of the “Iron Curtain”, but excluding him from the equation showcases a rather average defensive unit. The Steelers rank 27th in the league against the run and, with King Henry in town, I’d be worried about their ability to stop the Titans late in games.
Conversely the Titans are slightly better than their public perception. The numbers show a slightly better defensive unit than the Steelers that is less reliant on one superstar. Unlike the Steelers, this unit has not caused many turnovers, but instead plays conservative defense in the passing and rushing game. This unit has produced as many sacks as the Steelers and can attack with multiple playmakers on the D-Line.
This game is going to be close! Vegas oddsmakers have the Steelers as -2.5pt favorites at home with the O/U set at 37pts. The numbers are in agreement with both the spread and the O/U - however, the numbers suggest that we take the Titans +2.5 and OVR 37 in tonight’s affair. Both defenses are average, and one excels at creating turnovers. Both of these are conditions in which turnovers can lead to points. Add into the mix a new Will Levis led passing attack and a wounded pride fueled Kenny Pickett airing it out for the home crowd fans. Conventional wisdom would tell us not to take a rookie QB in his second game, but the numbers for the Steelers against the rush and at the QB position make a 2.5point spread seem like a fantasy.
We will take the Titans to win over the Steelers at home this Thursday night! 23 - 20
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Welcome back and thanks for giving us the reason to enjoy the Data Season!
Season two baby! We do this!
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