Hello and welcome back to a second Data Season, the analytics newsletter where we break down NFL games based upon what the numbers say, cover the most interesting NFL storylines, and provide betting and gambling advice that will help you cash in this 2023 NFL football season.
First down! Check out our new and improved website where we cover some of the top NFL storylines that occurred during the offseason. The devaluing position of running back in today’s modern pass happy NFL. The NFLPA’s release of report card grades for teams. And many others. Check out the website and see what the numbers say!
Tonight - it’s the slap fight to beat all slap fights, as two terrible offenses and terrible defenses might actually make for some fun football! It’s the Chicago Bears vs the Carolina Panthers!
Both teams have barely enough star power to keep the lights on, only 3 wins total between them this year. Both fans have been struggling to see much from an offensive standpoint and hope that new acquisitions on the defensive side of the ball, may be enough to turn this season around. Bears fans will have to watch and wonder if they made the right call tonight, after trading away their seat in the draft to allow the Panthers to select Bryce Young. This is very likely to be a game of “who has the ball last”, let’s crunch the numbers and see who will win tonight’s game!
Both QBs have been equally lackluster. Tyson Bagent gets the nod again this week for an injured Justin Fields and, while he is the slightly better QB statistically, his INT percentage is nearly double that of Bryce Young. Consider a parlay bet that he throws at least one interception tonight against a Panthers team that plays very well against the pass in terms of yards allowed. Bagent will likely have all the time he needs however, as the Panthers will be without star edge rusher Brian Burns and the Bears have a much better sack allowed percentage as compared to the Panthers.
Woah! Weirdly this is truly the tale of two different defenses. While the Bears have managed to stop opponents rushing attack, they have been very susceptible through the air. Conversely the Panthers can’t seem to stop opponents from rushing, but have kept the damage suffered through the air to a minimum. This becomes less district when the numbers broke down the pass attempt vs rush attempt for the defenses, the number came out nearly even. Passing yards are by far and away the most powerful statistic for wins in the NFL. So we will give a slight nod to the Panthers on defense, even without Brian Burns.
At the time of this writing, Vegas oddsmakers have the Bears as -3.5pt favorites at home with the O/U set at 38 pts. The numbers are NOT in agreement with the spread and would suggest that we take the Panthers to cover +3.5 and OVER 38 in tonight’s affair. Both defenses are below average, and have demonstrated very clear weaknesses. Expect both coaches to dial in on those and run their offense accordingly. Bears should hammer the ball down the field, while the Panthers struggle to keep the game close by airing it out. Bet on at least a few turnovers in this affair, likely to come from the QB position.
We will take the Bears to win over the Panthers at home this Thursday night! 23 - 20
Lastly, I want to thank everyone for subscribing to this newsletter. It is a joy and a pleasure to assemble this material for all you fine NFL fans out there regardless of fanbase. This is only our second year and the content and experience provided on the website continues to improve as the seasons and years go by.
We are exploring the addition of audio recordings of our weekly insights, for quick and easy consumption while on the go. We are also looking into creating a feedback function on the website, so you may provide us with suggestions of analysis that would be most interesting to you.
Welcome back and thanks for giving us the reason to enjoy the Data Season!
Season two baby! We do this!
