Sound of a can clicking open.
OK let's do this! Hello and welcome back to a second Data Season, the analytics newsletter where we break down NFL games based upon what the numbers say, cover the most interesting NFL storylines, and provide betting and gambling advice that will help you cash in this 2023 NFL football season.
First down! Check out our new and improved website where we cover some of the top NFL storylines that occurred during the offseason. The devaluing position of running back in today’s modern pass happy NFL. The NFLPA’s release of report card grades for teams. And many others. Check out the website and see what the numbers say!
Tonight - it’s Chargers vs the Cowboys!
Will Dak and the rest of the Boys bounce back after the California sized beat down they suffered at the hands of the 49ers? Or are the Chargers ready to shock the world coming out of their Bye week? Let’s take a look at the number and see what they had to say!
The Chargers look slightly better on offense. What stood out was the quality of offensive players the Chargers have at their disposal over the Cowboys. With the return of Austin Ekeler and the continued brilliance of Kenan Allen, this Chargers team has been able to lead in several key offensive statistics that are heavily correlated to victories in the NFL.
At first glance - the Cowboys appear head and shoulders better on defense than the Chargers. Severe differences in points per game and yards allowed per game between these two teams through the first few weeks. Passing yards are highly correlated to a team's record at the end of the year, and the Cowboys holding opponents to only 168 yards per game is remarkable.
HOWEVER - when comparing the strength of the opponents these two teams have faced, the numbers provided by the Cowboys become more and more suspect. The Chargers are more likely to fall on the higher end of their defensive range when compared to the Patriots, Giants and Jets the Cowboys previously faced
This game is going to be close! Vegas oddsmakers have the Cowboys at 1.5 favorites away at the Chargers with the O/U set at 50.5pts. The numbers support this conclusion but do not support the higher level O/U. Either Cowboys defense proves to be the upper-end elite squad they market themselves as and the Chargers are stifled OR the Cowboys subpar offense led by CeeDee Lamb manages to keep the game close.
We’ll take the Chargers in a very close game at home coming off the bye. 26 - 23
Lastly, I want to thank everyone for subscribing to this newsletter. It is a joy and a pleasure to assemble this material for all you fine NFL fans out there regardless of fanbase. This is only our second year and the content and experience provided on the website will improve as the season progresses. We will explore the possibility of adding audio recordings of the weekly insights for quick and easy consumption while on the go. We will also look into creating a feedback function on the website, so you may provide us with suggestions for the analysis you are most interested in exploring weekly. Last year was challenging and we likely bit off more than we could chew, but that will not be the case this year.
Welcome back and thanks for giving us the reason to enjoy the Data Season!
Season two baby! We do this!
