Something you should know, stat boys, is I love the running back position. Over the course of my NFL fandom, all of the  players I admired most have been running backs. My love for Maurice Jones-Drew, Barry Sanders, Warrick and Dunn Mike Alstott run DEEP!

With that in mind, what I'm about to say is going to really really hurt. When comparing rushing statistics and passing statistics, and correlating those variables to wins and losses, the data does not lie. Running backs are overvalued in the NFL. With regards to attempts, yards, yards per attempt, yards per reception and touchdowns - passing statistics eclipse rushing statistics in their statistical correlation to wins and losses.

Statistical correlation between winning percentage and offensive statistics
Offensive Statistics correlated to Winning Percentage of NFL Teams

WAIT! NO SO FAST! Flag on the analysis, there is one minor exception. Rushing touchdowns are statistically relevant and nearly as correlated to victory as passing yards and passing touchdowns. So what does that mean for the kids coming into the league at the RB spot? It means that while a high-flying running back who can get 1200 to 2000 rushing yards in a season is likely good to have on your team, an NFL general manager should be focused on the running backs who can pound the ball into the end zone from 10 yards to five yards out. Statistically total yards for a running back are irrelevant when it comes to wins and losses for your football team. We need to be finding and paying the guy who can find the end zone.

So which teams are doing it right and which are close to taking a big step forward this season based on this information:

Unsurprisingly Kansas City Chiefs, the Philadelphia Eagles, the Buffalo Bills, the San Francisco 49ers, the Cincinnati Bengals, the Los Angeles Xhargers and the Minnesota Vikings are all likely to have a successful year based on their rushing and passing statistics last year.

The teams to watch this year based on this information are the Miami Dolphins, the Detroit Lions, the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Seattle Seahawks. These teams only need to take a step forward in their passing statistics, and based on our analysis expect them to be vastly improved and able to compete with the “upper tier”.

There were a few teams that accumulated strong enough running statistics that, if there is an improvement in their passing statistics, are likely tol take a big step forward this season. The teams that fall into this category are the Baltimore Ravens, the Dallas Cowboys, the Cleveland Browns, the New York Giants, and the Las Vegas Raiders. (Sorry Jets fans, I was as surprised as you. Definitely I expected you to be in this category.)  All of these teams had powerful rushing statistics and a higher than average win loss correlation to boot. Victory can be theirs’, if they can develop their passing game.

In my opinion there is nothing more electrifying than watching one man dodge, duck, dip, dive and dodge down the field, avoiding everyone else until he crosses the plane into the end zone. Unfortunately the best running backs in the NFL are seldom found on the teams competing in the playoffs. Think your Running Back Mt. Rushmore with all-time greats like - Barry Sanders, Earl Campbell, Eric Dickerson, OJ Simpson, and Adrian Peterson. All candidates for GOAT status, and all having never won a Super Bowl. 

The data says It's a quarterback's league baby, and guys like me just got to accept it.