Hello and welcome back to a second Data Season, the analytics newsletter where we break down NFL games based upon what the numbers say, cover the most interesting NFL storylines, and provide betting and gambling advice that will help you cash in this 2023 NFL football season.
First down! Check out our new and improved website where we cover some of the top NFL storylines that occurred during the offseason. The devaluing position of running back in today’s modern pass happy NFL. The NFLPA’s release of report card grades for teams. And many others. Check out the website and see what the numbers say! https://www.dataseason.co/
Tonight - it’s Jaguars vs the Saints in the Caesar’s Super Dome!
Duval fans are excited to head to New Orleans on a 2-game winning streak with the last win coming against a tough opponent in the Buffalo Bills. We’ll discuss the statistical advantage of playing games in London in another article, but for now Jacksonville’s offense appears to be picking up speed only 6 weeks into the 2023 NFL season.
The Saints are in a similar way offensively to the Jaguars of weeks past. Despite having the pieces on paper, the Saints inability to convert offensive yards to points have led to a trend of either nail biting victories or blowout losses to their weekly opponents.
And the numbers say that this week should be no different! Let’s break down what the numbers are telling us to see who will win in the Caesar’s Super Dome this Thursday night!
The Jaguars are 10th best in scoring 6 weeks thru the 2023 NFL season. Offensively both teams are equally proficient in distributing the ball around to their key playmakers. A quick statistical comparison of these offenses showcases the jump in consistency the Jaguars have had in recent weeks. Calvin Ridley and Rashid Shaheed are both their team's respective “deep threat” playmakers, but Ridley has been far more consistent. Ridley has held on to 26 receptions to Shaheed's 16. The Jaguars have a slight advantage in the running game. While the rushing yards per game are on par, Travis Etienne is dominating in all-purpose yards from scrimmage.
Offensively the Jaguars have a slight advantage - but the numbers are saying that neither offense is likely to determine this game's outcome. Let’s look at the defensive stat comparison of both teams.
Holy! Shit! While both defenses have ranked highly, the Saints defense has been phenomenal over the first 6 weeks of the NFL - finishing in the top 10 for several key statistically relevant categories for winning in the NFL. While the Jaguars are no slouches (#3 in rush defense), finishing 31st in passing yards allowed is an opportunity that the Saints could take advantage of to light up the Super Dome this Thursday night.
However the Saints should be wary when passing downfield, the Jaguars' defense has frequently taken advantage when teams have dropped back to pass and caused turnovers or sacks for loss. If Derek Carr's not careful, the Jaguars defensive line and secondary are going to be a problem all night. Carr will likely need to get the ball out quickly and accurately to have success against this defense. Watch out for Jaguars defensive end Josh Allen (7 sacks) and Andre Cisco and Darious Williams patrolling the secondary (3 INTs each).
This game is going to be close! Vegas oddsmakers have the Saints as 2pt favorites at home with the O/U set at 40 pts. The numbers are in agreement with both the spread and the O/U.
D-Fence! That’s the name of this game. Both defenses are stellar and are going to be the determining factor in keeping this game close until the final quarter. Expect a defensive showdown with neither team being able to move consistently on offense and both teams struggling in the red zone. This game will be a snoozer, I’d leave the TV on in the background while you multitask.
In games this close, the numbers always favor taking the better quarterback, the player who has the ability to put up points in the final minutes of the game. We’ll take the Trevor Lawrence led Jacksonville Jaguars over the Derek Carr led Saints. 23 - 17
Lastly, I want to thank everyone for subscribing to this newsletter. It is a joy and a pleasure to assemble this material for all you fine NFL fans out there regardless of fanbase. This is only our second year and the content and experience provided on the website continues to improve as the seasons and years go by.
We are exploring the addition of audio recordings of our weekly insights, for quick and easy consumption while on the go. We are also looking into creating a feedback function on the website, so you may provide us with suggestions of analysis that would be most interesting to you.
Welcome back and thanks for giving us the reason to enjoy the Data Season!
Season two baby! We do this!
https://www.dataseason.co/
